The big listing today, has been Mundra Port and SEZ.
The stock listed at 770 on the NSE against an issue price of 440 and even hit a high of 1100 rupees. Most of the analysts are valuing it as per sum-of-parts valuation because this is going to be a mix of a port, Coal Terminal-II and an SEZ.
So the valuations turn out to be thus:
Mundra - Port & SEZ
DCF Value - Per Shr
Port - 149.63
CT-II - 62.34
SEZ - 187.03
The SEZ has been largely valued on the Phase I that they have which is only 15, 665 acres. The other 16, 000-odd acres are in transition. But most analysts are valuing the SEZ, as a whole – that is 30, 000 acres and giving the SEZ, a higher, greater valuation.
Also, the business plan has not been put in the RHP and CNBC-TV18’s discussions with the management. They are drawing out the business plans right now. But once more details come, more incremental value can be added to the SEZ.
Right now it works out to be Rs 399 per share, which is the lower level that is coming out on the Street. More optimistic figures are coming around Rs 450- Rs 500 per share.
How does it work out at Rs 1000 per share? It would be looking at 114 times FY08 earnings and 71 times FY09 earnings. Even on an earnings/ EBIDTA basis, where the EBIDTA is expected to increase in FY08 and FY09 because of new deals that they have struck, on an FY08 basis, EV/ EBIDTA, it would be 96 times and on FY09, it would be 73 times.
There is a lot of optimism going towards the SEZ. A lot of analysts are cautioning that the SEZ blueprint needs to be seen. See if the Phase I is a success and then attribute value towards the Phase II, and the land has to come into hand.
That’s what must be watched out for, as per CNBC-TV18 analysis.
Source: Moneycontrol.com
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
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